• My Personal Weatherman™

Ida and Julian are next. Here is the new 2 PM map. I will post ensembles later!

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic almost 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due while it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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