Important Update - Double-Hit Projected for Central Gulf Coast
Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Watches have been issued!
- As I predicted, the National Hurricane Center has shifted the forecast track of Marco eastward. Also, regarding Laura they are saying that their 85 mph peak projection could be conservative, which is what I have been saying.
- See the images below, including the key message in the 4th and 5th images.
- This is from the NHC regarding Marco:
Cutting to the chase, there have been some big changes among the model guidance, and subsequently the NHC forecast, for Marco this afternoon. While at this point it's a little speculative, the data collected by this morning's NOAA G-IV flight in the environment around Marco and across the Gulf of Mexico may have played a key role in the significant eastward shift seen in nearly all the 12z models. This isn't to say that the uncertainty in the eventual track has diminished. In fact, various ensemble members from some of the global models still show a potential risk to the coast anywhere from Texas to Alabama, and it's entirely possible that the volatile shifts seen in the models could continue. That being said, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly eastward and now shows the center of Marco reaching southeastern Louisiana in about 2 days, which is the scenario currently shown by the GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the TVCN multi-model consensus. With the exception of the HWRF, the other intensity models show Marco reaching hurricane strength, and the NHC foreast continues to show that possibility while Marco moves over the central Gulf. The shear is still expected to strengthen in 36-48 hours when the system is approaching the northern Gulf Coast, but with the shift in the forecast track, now there may not be enough time for Marco to weaken below hurricane intensity before it reaches land. The new NHC intensity forecast is near or just above the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble models and holds Marco as a hurricane until it reaches the coast.
- This is from the NHC regarding Laura:
Over warm waters, with anticipated weak vertical shear, and anticyclonic flow aloft, Laura will likely strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf, this forecast could be conservative. At this time it does not seem likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should have much of an influence on the latter system. Given the predicted track and wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.