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Important update on Elsa, heat advisory, strong thunderstorms, and LI forecast with all of the maps:

- Tropical Storm Elsa has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, and while it will weaken somewhat over Cuba, it's expected to regain a little strength and be around its current intensity when it makes landfall in Florida. See all of the maps below for the expected impacts with rain, wind, and storm surge as well as the timing.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for Nassau and NYC for tomorrow for heat index temperatures as high as 102 degrees.

- Strong thunderstorms are likely tomorrow evening for Long Island with the potential for heavy downpours and gusty winds.

- While Elsa will likely pass southeast of Long Island Friday morning, there will be periods of showers and thunderstorms for Long Island on Thursday and Friday from a frontal system.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

**A Heat Advisory has been issued for Nassau from 11 AM to 8 PM tomorrow (Tuesday) for heat index temperatures as high as 102 degrees**

Today: Mostly sunny with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Light wind in the morning and then out of the SE to S at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear with lows in the upper 60's. Wind out of the S to SSW at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid with thunderstorms likely holding off until early evening with highs mostly 85 to 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end and some low 90's in northwestern Nassau. Wind out of the SW to SSW at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: A 60% chance of evening thunderstorms which could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds and then partly cloudy with lows mostly in the low 70's. Wind out of the SW to WSW at 10 to 15 mph, but gusts over 40 mph are possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, hot, and humid with a 40% chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening. Highs mostly in the upper 80's to around 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's, but cooler for the south sore and east end. Wind out of the SSE at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and humid with a chance of some showers and thunderstorms at times with highs in the low 80's. Wind out of the WSW to SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and fairly humid with highs in the low to mid 80's.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and fairly humid with highs in the low to mid 80's.


- 1st image: Tropical Storm Elsa from the NHC

- 2nd image: Projected temperatures for 2 M tomorrow from the HRRR model

- 3rd image: Future radar from the NAM for 7 PM tomorrow

- 4th image: Maximum projected wind gusts through 8 PM Wednesday from the NWS

- 5th image: Projected rainfall through 8 AM Friday from the WPC

- 6th and 7th images: Wind timing and storm surge from the NHC

- 8th and 9th images: Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles

- 10th image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 11th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend













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