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Important update on Fred, Grace, and future Henri. Also, the Long Island forecast:

- Tropical Storm Fred has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is slowly strengthening and will make landfall later today in the Florida Panhandle with maximum sustained winds of around 60 mph with some gusts close to hurricane-force possible right along the shore. Rainfall totals will be as high as 5 to 10 inches with a maximum storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.

- Tropical Depression Grace will likely stay on a fairly southern track and be a threat to the Yucatan and then through the Bay of Campeche and towards Mexico again, although it's not expected to reach hurricane-strength.

- Tropical Depression Eight will become Tropical Storm Henri today, and the important point is that the stronger it gets in the next few days, the closer it will get to the east coast of the United States before turning northward and then northeastward. The HWRF shows it getting very strong and heading towards the east coast, but stronger wind shear should prevent this. Also, you can the intensity-dependent track in the Euro ensembles as well, where the stronger (blue and then red) lines are along the east coast, and the weaker (gray lines) don't even come close. The National Hurricane Center does not anticipate it getting close to the east coast, although they say it's a low-confidence forecast beyond day 3.

- The details for Long Island are below, but after today, it will be a very humid weak with mostly cloudy conditions with periods of showers and possibly thunderstorms, especially late Wednesday into Thursday with the highest rainfall totals for western Long Island and points west. It will also get warmer later in the week, and then weekend looks good overall.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:


Today: Partly sunny through upper-level clouds with highs around 80 degrees. Wind of 5 out of the NE in the morning and then 5 to 10 mph out of the SE in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and humid with lows in the upper 60's. Wind out of the SSE at around 5 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and humid with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for western areas with highs around 80 degrees. Wind out of the SSE at 5 mph in the morning and 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Cloudy and very humid with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with highs around 80 degrees. Wind out of the S at 5 mph in the morning and 10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday: Cloudy and very humid with a 60% chance of showers with highs in the low 80's. Wind out of the S at 5 mph in the morning and 10 mph in the afternoon.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and humid with a 30% chance of a scattered shower or a thunderstorm with highs in the mid 80's. Wind out of the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and humid with only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon or evening with highs in the mid 80's.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and humid with highs in the low to mid 80's.


- 1st image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days

- 2nd image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 3rd to 5th images: Official NHC maps for Fred, Grace, and Tropical Depression Eight (future Henri), respectively

- 6th image: Maximum projected wind gusts for Florida from the NWS

- 7th image: Projected rainfall for the United States through 8 AM Saturday from the WPC

- 8th and 9th images: Projected rainfall through 8 AM Saturday for Long Island and southern New England from the WPC and Euro ensemble mean, respectively

- 10th image: Projected storm surge for Florida

- 11th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend















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