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Important Update on Laura and Long Island Weather With Severe Thunderstorms For the Northeast

Long Island:

- Today: Hot and humid with increasing clouds in the afternoon with a 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms, mostly between 1 PM and 7 PM. Thunderstorms have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts greater than 55 mph, as well as hail and heavy downpours. However, coverage will not be widespread.

- Tomorrow: Sunny and cooler with low humidity with highs mostly in the upper 70's with a northwest breeze at 10 to 20 mph.

- Thursday: The cold front will return north as a warm front, so it will become much warmer and more humid in the afternoon with a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms again from late afternoon into the evening. Otherwise, most of the day with be partly cloudy with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's.

- Friday: Partly cloudy and humid with highs mostly in the mid 80's with a slight chance of a thunderstorm by evening.

- Saturday: Mostly cloudy and humid with highs mostly in the low 80's with a 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours into late at night.

- Sunday: Becoming mostly sunny, cooler, and less humid by afternoon with highs in the upper 70's.

- A quick note on the potential for the next tropical system. The Euro ensembles continue to show the potential for a hurricane to be approaching the east coast just after Labor Day, but the overnight ensembles look slightly less ominous than the 12Z run from yesterday.

Tropical Storm Laura:

- The expected track has shifted westward, as I have been mentioning. The National Hurricane Center will probably shift it farther west into the upper Texas coast in their next advisory, as they believe in continuity of forecast, so they tend to make gradual changes.

- The National Hurricane Center is finally calling for it to be a major hurricane, which is also what I have been saying all along; this is from the NHC: Maximum sustained winds remain 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Laura is now expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. Storm surge is expected to be as high as 7 to 11 feet and rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely with isolated amounts up to 12 inches.

Here is some information from the National Hurricane Center on the potential track and intensity: The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments could be required later today. Rapid intensification is becoming more likely before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days. Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could increase just before landfall.

- 1st image: From the National Hurricane Center.

- 2nd image: Projection from the HWRF model for 8 PM Wednesday.

- 3rd image: Severe Weather Potential for today and tonight from the Storm Prediction Center.

- 4th image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days.

- 5th image: Projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center.

- 6th image: Simulated radar for 5 PM today from the HRRR model.

- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend.

- 8th image: Severe weather potential for Thursday from the Storm Prediction Center.

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