• My Personal Weatherman

Important update on the tropics:

With 6 systems in the tropics (2 tropical storms and 4 potential tropical systems), this update will be mainly focusing on the 3 most important ones... Paulette, Invest 95L, and Invest 96. See previous post for a full update, including the Long Island forecast, and a note about 9/11.

  • Tropical Storm Paulette is a major threat to Bermuda on Sunday night into Monday. The National Hurricane Center is projecting it to be a Category 2 hurricane by then with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, but Bermuda should prepare as if a Cat 3 is coming, like the HWRF model is showing. It's too early to tell exactly how close the eye will come to Bermuda, but it should come close enough for hurricane conditions on Bermuda. The HWRF model is showing a large eye passing right over Bermuda (see last image, which is for 8 AM Monday).

  • Invest 96L will bring a lot of rain to southern Florida and into the central and eastern Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance of tropical development. While the chances are very low that it would have time to become a hurricane, strong tropical storm force winds are possible. However, the main impact will be the very high rainfall totals. Early indications are that is has to potential to produce as much as 5 to 10 inches of rain (see 4th image from the 06Z Euro, which is showing projected rainfall through 8 PM Monday). We will know a lot more tomorrow. The following is from the National Hurricane Center: "A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend from the northwestern and central Bahamas eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent."

  • Invest 95L has the most potential for major impacts in the Caribbean and possibly the United States; however, there is a lot of uncertainty in the future track. It's still possible that it curves north early and doesn't affect land.


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