Important update on thunderstorms, and the Euro is showing a major change for the holiday weekend!
- The details for Long Island are in the forecast below. It's funny as I heard on the radio yesterday (97.5 WALK) that today would be hazy, hot, and humid on Long Island. I didn't know that the mid to upper 70's were considered hot, LOL. Only northwestern Nassau will get into the low to mid 80's (see 4th image for projected highs for today).
- In the 1st image, you can see the severe weather potential for today into tonight is widespread, and the tornado threat is shown in the 2nd image. For Long Island, the timing is mostly between 8 PM and midnight with the best chance for a strong thunderstorm with strong wind gusts and small hail being in western Long Island as the storms will weaken as they head east.
- The timing of the rain for Fri/Sat still generally looks like from around mid-afternoon on Friday into late morning on Saturday, but it will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and chilly Saturday afternoon/evening!
- In a major change, the Euro is now showing a coastal system bringing rain to Long Island Sunday morning into Monday afternoon, but the GFS and Canadian have the rain offshore. However, the previous GFS run did show exactly what the Euro is showing, so this will need to be watched; I will post updates.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Partly cloudy with more clouds possible right along the south shore with moderate to high humidity and breezy in the afternoon with only a very slight chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon with highs ranging from the low to mid 80's for northwestern Nassau to the mid 70's for the south shore and low 70's for the east end. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the mid to late afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly between 7 PM and midnight with the best chance for a stronger thunderstorm being for northwestern Long Island. Lows in the mid 60's in Nassau and low 60's in Suffolk. Wind mostly out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the evening, but gusty winds over 45 mph and small hail are possible in any stronger thunderstorm.
Tomorrow: Early morning clouds and then sunny with low humidity, blue skies, and a light northwesterly breeze with highs mostly in the low 80's, but cooler right along the south shore and for the east end. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Friday: Increasing clouds with showers developing in the afternoon from west to east and continuing into the night with highs in the mid to upper 60's. Wind out of the NE in the morning at around 10 mph and then ENE in the afternoon at around 15 mph.
Saturday: Morning showers becoming more scattered and ending by around late morning and then mostly cloudy in the afternoon, breezy, and cool with highs only in the low 60's. Wind out of the NE at 15 mph with gusts over 20 mph.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 60's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the NE at 10 to 15 mph. However, there is slight chance of rain as it depends on how close a coastal system comes to us, but there is uncertainty as the models are not in agreement; the Euro is showing rain.
Memorial Day: Partly cloudy with only a light breeze and highs mostly in the low 70's. Keep in mind though that the Euro is showing rain into early to mid afternoon.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70's.
- 1st image: Severe weather potential for today and tonight from the Storm Prediction Center
- 2nd image: Tornado potential for today into tonight from the Storm Prediction Center
- 3rd image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 4th image: Projected highs for today from the NWS
- 5th and 6th images: Simulated radar from the NAM (9 PM) and HRRR (11 PM), respectively
- 7th image: Projected rainfall through 2 PM Saturday from the Euro
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend