Increasing Chance of Tropical Development
Now with the 2 PM update from the National Hurricane Center, both systems have been increased to a 40% chance of tropical development. Those percentages will keep increasing, especially for the 2nd system.
- The 2nd one is the system that I posted about when it was over Africa, and that's the one I'm worried about. I think it's going to track a little farther north than the National Hurricane Center is showing. I will post the new Euro ensembles when they come out.
- The 2nd image shows the current radar.
The following is from the National Hurricane Center: 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a fast-moving tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit significant development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Monday, and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.