Increasing Chance of Tropical Development
With the 2 PM update, the 2nd wave is now up to a 70% chance of tropical development.
I will post the new 12Z Euro ensembles later this afternoon. The 3rd image is for 8 AM Sunday from the UKMET.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to limit significant development. After that time, however, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the western
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
2. A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is forecast to interact with another disturbance located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands within the next day or two. This interaction is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of low pressure, and conditions are forecast to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.