- The new HRRR and NAM runs did shift a little farther south with the snow, and I have included snow maps from them as well as from the National Weather Service. I will likely post a new future radar video from the new HRRR run around mid-morning.
- It still looks like a storm night on Long Island, especially between around midnight and 5 AM ( a little later for the east end) with moderate to heavy rain with even a slight chance for a rumble of thunder, and wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range.
- Then attention turns to a potentially strong storm for the northeast next weekend, but the details are uncertain as there is still a large spread in track and strength, but this will soon become the main focus with many updates! Rather than posting the ensembles map, in the 1st image you can see the projected storm locations and strengths, and there are some strong ones in there! I have also posted the upper air pattern and the Long Island snowfall matrix in the last 2 images, and we can watch this evolve.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Increasing clouds, especially in the afternoon, with showers arriving around late afternoon or more likely in the early evening from west to east with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the N at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the EE at 10 to 15 mph by late afternoon.
Tonight: Evening showers (with a very slight chance of some sleet mixing in during the evening away from the south shore) becoming a steadier rain and becoming heavy at times at times after midnight and becoming very windy, especially between 1 AM and 5 AM, with lows in the upper 30's and rising into the low to mid 40's by morning. Wind out of the E/ESE at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph after midnight.
***Coastal Flood Watch for Long Island for tomorrow morning (Saturday morning) for the following expected impacts: Widespread minor to scattered moderate flooding of vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline. Expect 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 feet of inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. This will result in numerous road closures and cause widespread flooding of low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront. Vehicles parked in vulnerable areas near the waterfront will likely become flooded. Flooding will also extend inland from the waterfront along tidal rivers and bays.***
Tomorrow: Breezy with showers ending mostly by mid-morning and cloudy and continued breezy conditions in the afternoon with highs in the mid 40's in the morning with temperatures mostly in the low to mid 40's in the afternoon. Wind out of the ENE/NNE at 15 to 25 mph early in the morning and then out of the NNW at 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy with lows in the low 30's. Wind out of the NNW at 10 to 15 mph and decreasing after midnight.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny and a little breezy in the afternoon with highs in the upper 40's in Nassau and mid to upper 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40's to near 50 degrees, but cooler east. Wind out of the NW at around 10 mph in the morning and NW/WNW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday: Chance of morning showers and then partly cloudy and breezy in the afternoon with highs in the low 50's in Nassau and around 50 degrees in Suffolk. Wind out of the N at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the NNW at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
- 1st image: Projected storm locations/strengths from the Euro ensembles for next Saturday evening
- 2nd to 5th images: Snow maps through tomorrow from the HRRR, NAM, and NWS with a close-up for southern New England in the 5th image
- 6th image: Maximum projected wind gusts for the storm from the National Weather Service
- 7th image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 8th image: Upper air pattern at 1 PM next Sunday from the Euro ensemble mean
- 9th image: Long Island snow matrix from the Euro ensemble members
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