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Inland tornado threat and Invest 91L with an increased chance of developing:

In the 1st and 2nd images, you can see the severe weather and tornado threat for tomorrow through early Thursday morning. For Long Island, the main threats from thunderstorms would be heavy downpours, lightning, and a slight chance for damaging wind gusts greater than 55 mph.


Regarding Invest 91L in the Gulf, convection is impressive, but it's disorganized. The following is from the NHC: Showers and thunderstorms have increased today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but they are forecast to become more conducive for some limited tropical or subtropical cyclone development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some slight additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.






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