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Intensity forecast increased to 100 mph for Sally - could go higher!

See my previous post for more information on Hurricane Paulette and future Hurricane Teddy, as well as the Long Island forecast. Also, there is a new wave that will be coming off the coast of Africa this week that will be the next one to watch. It looks like a low rider that will head west towards the Windward Islands.


Tropical Storm Sally is strengthening as it now has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, and the National Hurricane Center has raised their intensity forecast to 100 mph maximum sustained winds. However, a Cat 3 can't be ruled out. This is from the NHC: "It is an extremely tricky forecast because of how this might happen close to landfall, but guidance is generally 5-10 kt higher than the last cycle so the intensity forecast has been raised by those amounts up through landfall. It is worth noting that rapid intensification is a possibility if the system develops a more solid inner core on Monday, and stronger solutions like the HWRF model can't be dismissed."


My note: The HWRF model is showing intensification right up to landfall, as it's showing a minimum central pressure of 957 mb near New Orleans!


Also, the maximum storm surge forecast has been increased to 7 to 11 feet, but that may go higher as well! Forecast rainfall is still generally in the 10 to 15 inch range with locally higher amounts.


Here is more information from the NHC:

KEY MESSAGES: 1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 3. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across southern and central Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across Central Florida through Monday. Significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND








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