• My Personal Weatherman™

**Isaias Forecast to Become a Hurricane Today**

- Hurricane Warnings have been issued for portions of the Carolinas and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued northward, including Long Island.

- The storm continued to get a little better organized overnight, and the Euro, HWRF, and HWRF-Parallel all continue to intensify the storm before landfall. It's trying to form an eyewall, and with slightly reduced wind shear and very warm water temperatures, it wouldn't surprise me if it strengthens to a little higher than the 75 mph maximum sustained winds that the NHC is calling for.

- See all images below for impacts for your area. This storm will be no joke along the Carolina coastline when it comes in with gusts of 65 to 80 mph and a storm surge as high as 3 to 5 feet. Also, the flooding rain all the way north into the northeast with some areas getting as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain. There is also the tornado threat for the coast from the Carolinas all the way into southern New England, but the highest threat is for the Carolinas.

- For Long Island, I can't stress this enough that with the center expected to pass close to NYC, there won't be much rain on Long Island (so no complaints, LOL), but we will have the strongest wind gusts, as high as 55 to 60 mph with an isolated gust over 65 mph on the shoreline being possible. Sustained winds will be 30 to 40 mph. The wind direction will be mostly from the SSE and then shifting later to ESE as the storm gets closer. The 3 to 5 inches of flooding rain will be west of NYC. The strongest winds for Long Island tomorrow should be from around 4 PM to 10 PM, and there will be some downed trees and power outages, but the timing could change a little depending on how fast the storm moves, and the peak gusts may only last a couple of hours. Storm surge is expected to be mostly 1 to 2 feet, but a storm surge of up to 3 feet is possible in some area. Here is a link to a detailed briefing for Long Island and the tri-state area from the National Weather Service:…/tropical_briefing_public.pdf This came out last night and shouldn't be used after 11 AM today since conditions could change. They will have a new briefing tonight.

- I will continue to update.

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