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Just one possible scenario, but this is why the Euro brings the hurricane up the coast:

Please see my previous post for not only the official forecast map from the National Hurricane Center, but also for the Euro ensembles map. If you want to see how it can come up the coast, this is from the latest Euro run. You can see the trough draws it northward, but the ridging off the northeast coast blocks its escape, so it brings the hurricane up to eastern Long Island. It's still a low chance though, as things will still change. First, we have to see where it will make landfall in Florida and how strong it will be, but Cat 3 is certainly possible, if not probable/likely.



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