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L.I. forecast and update on the quick system late tonight and the weekend storm with uncertainty:

- Most guidance has the fast-moving system for tonight into early tomorrow morning moving through PA and NJ with Long Island being mostly on the northeastern fringe, so the best chance of seeing rain showers changing to snow showers tonight is in Nassau and southwestern Suffolk. I have included the snow maps for it below, and I will keep an eye on it today and probably update with the latest HRRR and NAM runs around mid-morning.

- The main theme for this week is mainly windy conditions, especially tomorrow and Wednesday with gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range from the NW/NNW.

- Attention then turns to the potential yet still uncertain storm for Saturday into early Sunday morning. There has been another slight decrease in the snowstorm potential for Long Island, but everything is still on the table, as of now. The general idea though is that it looks to strengthen possibly a little too late as it heads eastward offshore (see 1st image), but let's see how it changes in the next day or two. I have included all of the maps from the ensembles though, so you can see the range of possible outcomes.

- It also looks like there will be a storm right behind this one, so that has to be watched for next Monday/Tuesday (March 13th/14th).


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Mostly sunny and a little breezy in the afternoon with highs around 50 degrees in Nassau and in the upper 40's in Suffolk, cooler east. Wind out of the NW at around 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with a 30% chance of rain showers after 11 PM, changing to snow showers, with the best chance being in Nassau and southwestern Suffolk as Long Island will be on the northeastern fringe of the system with the main action sliding southeastward through PA and then central NJ. Lows in the low 30's. Wind out of the NW around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Slight chance of flurries or snow showers in Nassau and SW Suffolk before 7 AM and then partly sunny overall and becoming windy with highs in the low to mid 40's in Nassau and low 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the NW/NNW at 10 to 20 mph in the morning and 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, windy, and cold with lows in the upper 20's in Nassau and mid to upper 20's in Suffolk. Wind out of the NNW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and windy with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the NNW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and a little breezy with highs in the mid to upper 40's in Nassau and mid 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the NNW at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny in the morning and partly cloudy in the afternoon with highs in the mid 40's. Wind out of the N at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

***There is still uncertainty with the weekend storm, so stay tuned for changes to the forecast.***

Saturday: *Watching a potential storm* A 60% chance of rain with a slight chance of snow later in the day and at night with highs in the low to mid 40's. Wind out of the ENE/NE at around 10 mph in the morning and then out of the NE/NNE at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph at night.


- 1st image: Projected storm locations/strengths at 7 PM Saturday from the Euro ensembles

- 2nd image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island

- 3rd to 6th images: Snow maps through tomorrow morning from the NWS, NWS (close-up), HRRR, and NAM

- 7th and 8th images: All 50 maps from the Euro ensemble members for the period from 1 PM to 7 PM on Saturday

- 9th to 12th images: 7-day snow maps from the 50 ensemble members, Euro ensemble mean, and Model Blend

- 13th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island from the Euro ensembles
















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