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Latest on Tropical Depression Eta:

The new advisory from the NHC is in, and they are still projecting it to get up to around 65 mph early next week, and you can see the slow overall movement from the 1st image. I have included the early 12Z tracks in the 2nd image and the new Euro ensembles in the 3rd image. The last image shows the projected rainfall for Florida for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center.


The following is from the National Hurricane Center:


Intensification is expected over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough. As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the global models suggest that the system could strengthen while acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.1N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0000Z 15.7N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  06/1200Z 16.8N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  07/0000Z 17.8N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 19.0N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 20.1N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 21.3N  81.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 23.0N  80.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 24.0N  83.0W   55 KT  65 MPH






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