Latest track guidance for Elsa with some comments:
- The 18Z track guidance from various models is tightly clustered, but it doesn't mean it is right. That is the general NHC track right now though, and a new updates comes out at 5 PM. - The GFS ensembles (2nd image) are over-dispersive, so it basically has every possible solution, lol, which isn't a great help, but I guess it beats the previous GFS ensembles version, which were usually under-dispersive. - The Euro ensembles (3rd image) generally have Elsa very weak after interaction with Hispaniola and/or Cuba.