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  • Writer's pictureMy Personal Weatherman™

Latest update on Tropical Storm Eta from the National Hurricane Center:

Regarding track:

"There is some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and thus there is a fair amount of uncertainty about what parts of Cuba and Florida the center may pass near or over."

Regarding intensity:

"Re-development is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is more subtropical or hybrid, as indicated by the GFS/HWRF, than a classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a gradual intensification in the expectation that the GFS scenario is more likely to verify, However, the intensity forecast lies a little below the intensity consensus."

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.9N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0000Z 14.1N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1200Z 14.9N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 16.0N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 17.0N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0000Z 18.0N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 19.6N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

The 2nd and 3rd images are the new 06Z Euro ensembles and early 12Z track guidance from various models.

The 4th image shows the projected rainfall for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center.

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