• My Personal Weatherman™

Locally MAJOR coastal flooding for Long Island with wind gusts as high as 60 mph:

- There's a Coastal Flood Watch for all of Long Island for Monday from 5 AM to 1 PM for 2 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level with widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding. See text below for more info!

- Wind gusts will also be 45 to 60 mph early Monday morning as a strong low level jet will be over Long Island with winds howling at 70 to 80 mph not far above the surface. The highest gusts up to 60 mph would be right along the south shore in Suffolk and also at elevation.

- I've included the snow, ice, and wind maps below.

From the NWS for Long Island: ...Potential for Widespread Moderate to locally Major coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide... Confidence is increasing in a widespread moderate coastal flooding event with the Monday morning tide in response to a long fetch E/SE gale to storm force onshore flow ahead of a complex low pressure moving up the coastal plain from the Mid Atlantic. 12z ETSS/ESTOFS and Stevens 75 to 95th percentile guidance are concerning, showing potential for 3 1/4 to 4 1/2 ft surge during the time of high tide, which would put the most vulnerable coastal communities along the western Great South Bay, Peconic Bay, and western LI Sound at threat for major inundation (3 ft above ground). A blended surge forecast bring water levels close to what was experience with the October 27 2018 Nor'easter for many areas. Impacts from this event can be seen in NWS NY coastal flood impact catalogs. A Coastal flood watch has been issued for the entire area to alert of this threat. The forecast challenge will be the timing of wind shift from intense E/SE to a weaker south as an occluded front works through. If winds remain at gale/storm force from the E/SE through the time of high tide, this will increase the potential to see major coastal flooding. An earlier wind shift before high tide should limit impacts to moderate levels. This will have to be refined over the next 48 hrs. High surf of 8 to 12 ft is expected along the ocean from Sunday Night into Monday morning, with areas of dune erosion and localized overwashes possible during the Monday morning high tide. Breaking surf of 4 to 6 ft is quite possible on western LI Sound as well during the peak winds, which if still occurring during the time of high tide would increase the threat of major coastal flooding issues along the SW CT and Westchester shoreline.

12 views0 comments