- As we get closer to the event, some details start to have more clarity. Even the NWS is mentioning the possibility of wind gusts as high as 57 mph on Long Island, although they are saying gusts more likely will be in the 45 to 50 mph range. Also, there will actually be 2 low-level jets move overhead, the first being Thursday night and the 2nd with the cold front Friday afternoon. It's the Friday afternoon period when the wind will really rip as the cold air pours in. Temperatures will drop around 30 degrees in 5 or 6 hours starting around 2 PM in Nassau and 4 PM in eastern Suffolk. While black ice is still possible, there may be just enough time for the wind to dry things out before we drop below freezing. Also, there may be a brief lull in the rain early Friday morning. There is also a chance of a thunderstorm on Friday. Last night I posted about the potential for localized major coastal on Long Island and NYC. Total rainfall for Long Island is expected to be around 2 inches, and there is a slight chance of a snow shower in the early evening on Friday.
- Another tweak is that the models have come in even colder for Christmas Eve, and highs are now expected to be only in the mid 20's on Long Island with wind gusts up to 30 mph.
- Regarding snow, there is a slight chance for some ocean effect snow showers from the south fork of eastern Long Island towards Cape Cod with a WSW wind on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning.
- I have included all of the maps below, including the timing maps from the Euro in the 8th to 11th images.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Sunny with highs in the upper 30's. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear with lows in the mid to upper 20's. Wind out of the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny with highs around 40 degrees. Wind light and variable.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds with lows in the upper 20's to near 30 degrees. Wind nearly calm in the evening and then out of the NNE at 5 mph after midnight.
Thursday: Cloudy with showers developing in the mid to afternoon from west to east and becoming breezy with highs near 50 degrees. Wind out of the ENE at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Rain and very windy at night.
Friday: Rain, heavy at times, with a brief lull possible in the morning with slight chance of a thunderstorm and very windy with highs in the upper 50's and then falling rapidly in the afternoon and evening into the upper teens to low 20's at night. Icy conditions are possible on untreated surfaces after dark. Wind out of the SE/SSE then S at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. Total rainfall is expected to be around 2 inches. A snow shower is possible in the evening with windy conditions continuing.
Saturday (Christmas Eve): Partly cloudy to mostly sunny, windy, and frigid with highs only in the mid 20's with wind chill temperatures in the single digits to low teens. Wind out of the WSW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Sunday (Christmas): Sunny and a little breezy with highs in the mid to upper 20's. Wind out of the W at 10 to 20 mph.
Monday: Sunny with highs around 30 degrees. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 2nd to 4th images: Snow, precipitation, and max wind gust maps for the storm. The snow map is extended through Christmas to show the potential for ocean effect from eastern Long Island towards Cape Cod
- 5th image: Projected wind chill temperatures at 7 AM on Christmas Eve
- 6th and 7th images: Projected temps for Long Island
- 8th to 11th images: Maps from the Euro for 4 PM Thurs, 4 AM Fri, 7 AM Fri, and 1 PM Friday
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