- Good morning and Happy Valentine's Day!
- You all know about the mild weather continuing this week with showers from the warm front and then cold front from late Thursday into Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be dropping Friday afternoon and it will be windy with a cold night ahead with lows in the low 20's overnight into Saturday morning on Long Island with the wind making it feel even colder.
- Temperatures then rebound again for a few days before some relatively colder air arrives around mid to late next week. The models and ensembles of course show varying solutions, but for example, the GFS is showing some snow for Long Island next Wednesday into Wednesday night and the Canadian has snow to ice to rain next Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The Euro has later timing and is beyond the end of its run, but it looks like it is on track to show some snow to ice to rain next Friday. The ensembles show the variability, but the ensemble mean snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days from the overnight run increased to 5 inches from around 3.5 inches. I have included all 50 ensemble member snow maps so you can see the variability and see the potential for all areas of the northeast.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Valentine's Day): Sunny and windy in the morning with highs mostly in the low 50's, cooler east. Wind out of the NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the morning and then out of the WNW at 5 to 10 mph by late afternoon.
Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows in the mid to upper 30's in Nassau and low to mid 30's in Suffolk and rising towards morning. Wind generally light and variable at around 5 mph.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a slight chance of a light shower early and then becoming mostly sunny and windy in the afternoon with highs in the mid 50's in Nassau and western Suffolk and low 50's in central and eastern Suffolk. Wind out of the S at around 10 mph in the morning and 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 40's in Nassau and mid 40's in Suffolk. Wind out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday: Increasing clouds early in the morning with scattered showers by mid to late afternoon with highs around 60 degrees in Nassau and mid to upper 50's in Suffolk, coolest east. Wind out of the W at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and then out of the S at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Friday: Windy with rain ending around mid afternoon with partial clearing late with highs in the mid 50's in the morning and falling into the mid to upper 40's by late afternoon. Wind out of the SSW/WSW at 10 to 20 mph in the morning and WNW then NW in the afternoon at 15 to 25 mph with up to 35 mph.
Saturday: Sunny with highs around 40 degrees. Wind out of the NW then W at 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Increasing clouds with highs in the upper 40's. Wind out of the WSW at around 10 mph in the morning and then out of the SSW at 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 50's. Wind out of the WSW at 10 to 15 mph.
- 1st image: My 5 day forecast for Long Island
- 2nd image: Projected temperatures for Long Island from the Euro ensembles
- 3rd to 5th images: 15-day snow maps from the Euro ensemble mean and all 50 ensemble members
- 6th image: Long Island snow matrix from the Euro ensembles, which shows the timing for any potential snow
- 7th image: Model Blend temperatures for Long Island
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