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Long Island forecast and the tropics:

LONG ISLAND FORECAST:


Today: Mostly cloudy with some breaks of filtered sunshine from mid to upper level clouds and just a 20% chance of a shower with the best chance being between 2 PM and 8 PM. There will be a wide range of temperatures with the upper 80's to near 90 degrees for central to northern Nassau and northwestern Suffolk to the low 80's for most of the rest of Long Island, but cooler for the south shore in Suffolk and east end with highs only in the low to mid 70's. Wind mostly out of the WNW at 5 mph in the morning and 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 60's in Nassau and western Suffolk to the low 60's for most of the rest of Suffolk. Wind mostly out of the WNW at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, hot, and breezy with highs mostly in the upper 80's to around 90 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end with highs in the low 80's. Wind out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Monday: Partly sunny and much cooler with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind of 10 to 15 mph mostly out of the ENE to ESE.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and breezy in the afternoon with highs mostly in the low 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind mostly out of the S to SSW at 10 mph in the morning and 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and very warm with highs mostly in the mid 80's, but much cooler for the south shore and east end, and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm by late afternoon or evening.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs mostly in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Friday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70's.


TROPICS:

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure area located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds and appears to have acquired subtropical characteristics. In addition, thunderstorm activity has been gradually increasing near the center, and if that trend continues advisories will be issued later this morning. The low is expected to move little today, remaining in the vicinity of Bermuda, but it is forecast to turn northeastward and move into a more hostile environment on Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. 2. A well-defined low pressure area is approaching the Texas coast and is now about 50 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi. Surface observations and satellite wind data indicate that the system continues to produce winds of about 35 mph near and to the east of its center, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited. Since the low is expected to move inland during the next several hours, the chances of it becoming a tropical depression or storm are decreasing. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana today. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend

- 3rd and 4th images: Projected highs for today from the NWS and HRRR, respectively

- 5th image: From the National Hurricane Center







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