Looking ahead to the storminess for Christmas and the Long Island forecast:
While the potential early week storm should still mostly offshore, there is potential storminess for the northeast on Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning/afternoon. It will be mild on Christmas Eve in the northeast with highs in the low to mid 50's on Long Island. A strong cold front will be approaching and it may be anafrontal in which precipitation also occurs behind the cold front. Also, a wave of low pressure may form along the front. In this case, the rain would change to a period of snow in the northeast (especially northern and interior New England and NY state) as it turns sharply colder with strong gusty winds. The Euro is showing the potential for wind gusts over 65 mph on Long Island. Although that is likely too high, the Euro ensemble mean is already over 40 mph and that will likely increase. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian are all showing the storm forming along the front and bringing heavy snow to central and northern NY state and Vermont. It's too early for specific details though as it's a week away. I will continue to update.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Friday): Mostly sunny and cold with highs in the low 30's with the wind out of the N to NNW at around 10 mph. Tonight: Clear and very cold with lows mostly in the upper teens with some mid-teens possible in the Pine Barrens region in Suffolk. The wind will only be 5 to 10, and the lighter the wind, the colder it will get due to radiational cooling. Tomorrow (Saturday): Mostly sunny and cold with highs in the low to mid 30's with light and variable winds. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with highs around 40 degrees. There is a 30% chance of some showers in the evening and at night. Monday: Watching an offshore storm, so there is some uncertainty, but probably mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low 40's. Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 40's. Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 40's. Thursday (Christmas Eve): Cloudy and mild with rain developing sometime in the late afternoon or evening, depending on the timing, as a strong cold front approaches. Highs will be in the low to mid 50's with a SSW wind up to 25 mph. There is the potential for heavier rain and stronger wind gusts over 45 mph at night as the cold front moves through. Friday (Christmas Day): Temperatures dropping throughout the day from the low 40's in the morning into the 30's in the afternoon as the wind shifts to the WNW behind the front. There is a chance for the rain to end as snow showers in the afternoon, and a coating can't be ruled out.
- 1st to 3rd images: Maps from the Euro, GFS, and Canadian, respectively, for 7 AM on Friday (Christmas)
- 4th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 5th image: Projected temperatures with ranges for Long Island for the next 15 days from the Euro ensembles
- 6th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend