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Major change in the Euro ensembles for the potential tropical system and the L.I. forecast:

- The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of tropical development to 40% within the next 5 days for the system just off the coast of Africa. Yesterday, the Euro ensembles were very bullish on it eventually becoming a hurricane. However, the ensembles from the overnight run mostly keep it weak! A couple of the GFS ensemble members bring it up the east coast as a hurricane, but I wouldn't worry about that at all right now. The 06Z Euro ensembles will be out by 10 AM, so I may post them, but they only go out 6 days, so it may not tell us too much.

- In the 5th image, you can see that the showers for tonight into tomorrow morning are mainly east and very light and scattered.

- The new official National Weather Service forecast high for Portland, Oregon on Sunday is 111 degrees, which would break their all-time high of 107 degrees.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Sunny with low humidity with highs in the mid to upper 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind light and variable in the morning and then becoming out of the ESE at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with a 30% chance of some light scattered showers late, especially in Suffolk. Lows in the upper 50's to around 60 degrees. Wind out of the ENE at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Cloudy in the morning with a 30% chance of some light scattered showers, especially in Suffolk and then partly cloudy in the afternoon with highs mostly in the upper 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the ENE at 5 mph in the morning and then S at 10 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday: Partly sunny and humid with a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm with highs mostly around 79 to 82 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday: Partly sunny and humid with highs mostly in the low to mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S to SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny and humid with highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S to SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and humid with a 20% chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm in the late afternoon or evening. Highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and humid with a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening with highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.


- 1st image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 2nd image: From the NHC

- 3rd and 4th images: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days and GFS ensembles for the next 15 days

- 5th image: Projected rainfall through 2 PM tomorrow from the HREF ensemble mean

- 6th image: Projected rainfall through 8 PM next Wednesday from the Weather Prediction Center

- 7th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend









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