Major differences between the GFS, Euro, and their ensembles for potential Hurricane Sam!
- Firstly, Peter and Rose are still tropical storms, but they will both be weakening and aren't a threat to land as even the remnants of Peter should pass east of Bermuda.
- As for Long Island, the forecast is below, but basically the cold front will be slowly approaching, so it will be warm and humid ahead of it with some light scattered showers with the main action with steadier rain probably being Thursday evening into Friday morning with some lingering showers in the afternoon with the front hopefully clearing Long Island by late afternoon on Friday. Highs will still be in the low 70's for the weekend with chillier air expected for the middle to end of next week.
- Regarding Invest 98L, which should become Tropical Storm Sam by the end of the week and then possibly a hurricane by early next week, the GFS and its ensembles favor an early turn to the north. However, the Euro and most of its ensemble members have it on more of a WNW track with the Euro bringing it over the Virgin Islands and northern Puerto Rico next week as a strong hurricane. Most of the ensemble members though keep it just north of there, and it seems like if it becomes a stronger hurricane, it would track a little farther north, even though that's not what the main Euro run is showing. I will have more updates today into tonight with the latest breaking info from the model runs. I've included the Euro ensembles map for the next 15 days (last image) exclusively here in the app.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today: Partly sunny with increasing clouds and humidity in the afternoon with a very slight chance of a light shower. Highs in the mid 70's. Wind out of the ESE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and out of the SE at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy and humid with a 20% chance of some light scattered showers. Lows in the mid 60's. Wind out of the SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid with a 50% chance of some light scattered showers at times with highs mostly in the upper 70's. Wind out of the SSE at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and humid with some showers likely at times with a steadier rain and a possible thunderstorm for late in the day or in the evening with highs in the mid 70's. Wind out of the SE to SSE at 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Friday: Rainy and breezy in the morning with lingering showers in the afternoon with highs in the low 70's. Wind out of the SSE in the morning and then W to WNW by late afternoon at 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with highs in the low 70's. Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 70's.
Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 70's.
- 1st image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days
- 2nd image: GFS ensembles for 98L for the next 10 days
- 3rd image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island
- 4th image: Overview of the tropics from the NHC
- 5th image: 06z tracks from various models for Invest 98L
- 6th image: Severe weather potential for Thursday from the Storm Prediction Center
- 7th image: Projected rainfall through Saturday night from the WPC
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Farmingdale, Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend
- 9th image: Euro ensembles for the next 15 days