• My Personal Weatherman

New 11 AM advisories on Paulette and Rene as Paulette strengthens:

While Rene is still expected to strengthen into a hurricane, it's going to then weaken and turn north into the middle of the Atlantic, so it's not a concern for the United States.

Paulette is now up to 65 mph maximum sustained winds, so it's possible that it could briefly become a hurricane. The future track is still a little uncertain, and while it will come closer to the east coast of the United States than Rene, it's still not expected to come close enough to cause impacts other than high surf.

The following is from the National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion for Tropical Storm Paulette:

Paulette has manged to strengthen despite the shear, and some 
additional short-term strengthening is certainly possible. It is not 
out of the question that Paulette could become a hurricane, at least 
briefly. The global models indicate that the shear will increase on 
Wednesday, which should cause Paulette's intensity to level off, 
and more likely, decrease. The NHC intensity forecast is just above 
the intensity consensus for the first 3 days, out of respect for 
Paulette's recent intensification above most of the guidance. By the 
weekend, Paulette's strength will heavily depend on its exact 
orientation relative to an upper-level low that is expected to be 
located west or southwest of the tropical storm. Some 
restrengthening could occur then, but the NHC forecast just shows a 
steady intensity, near the middle of the guidance suite.

Paulette is forecast to turn generally west-northwestward or 
westward tonight and Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds to its 
north. The guidance then indicates that late this week Paulette 
will turn northwestward when the ridge weakens. Differences in 
Paulette's forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday could result in 
a very different track late in the period since it affects the 
point at which the tropical storm will turn northwestward. The NHC 
forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus throughout the 
5-day period, but confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h is lower 
than normal due to high spread in the track guidance.


INIT  08/1500Z 18.4N  43.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 19.0N  44.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 19.8N  45.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 20.3N  47.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 20.6N  49.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 20.7N  51.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 21.2N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 23.1N  55.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 26.0N  58.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

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