• My Personal Weatherman™

New Euro snow map may be misleading:

- The 1st and 2nd images are from the new Euro run, but they are likely overdone. The 1st image is the map for Friday from 8 AM to 2 PM, and the 2nd image shows the projected snowfall (using a standard 10:1 snow ratio) from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM Friday. While there is a pretty good chance that the rain ends as wet snow on Long Island Friday late morning, accumulations other than a possible coating on grassy surfaces are unlikely at this time.

- The Euro ensembles paint a more realistic picture. The 3rd image shows the projected snowfall through 2 AM Saturday from the Euro ensemble mean, and the 4th image shows the probability of greater than 1 inch of snow through 2 AM Saturday from the Euro ensembles; for Long Island, it's showing around a 50% chance, with around 20% of that coming from the weak system tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

- The following is the latest thinking from the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the Tri-State area: "The difficult part of the forecast pertains to how quickly colder air can get involved very late Thursday night into Friday morning. There appears to be enough disagreement around this, as to how much moisture will be left when the cold air arrives. The sharply colder air will be behind the March version of an arctic boundary which should be felt during the day on Friday and into Friday night. For now went with a chance of snow for all areas into Friday morning as the cold air gets in quickly, with slight chance of mainly snow towards midday. For now it appears that northern branch energy does not drop down in time to bring a wintry mess to the region, with the colder air arriving just late enough for just mainly a brief period of lighter snow during Friday morning as temperatures get into the lower and middle 30s. If the colder air surprises and gets in sooner, than the forecast early on Friday will have to be revisited, but for now the confidence is moderately high that this won't happen."

7 views0 comments