New from the Storm Prediction Center:

Mesoscale Discussion 0993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Areas affected...Portions of far southeast New York...eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware...eastern Maryland...far eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible (Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent) SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. Damaging gusts are the main concern, though an instance or two of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A corridor of insolation ahead of a broad stratiform rain band (associated with an upper trough) has supported surface temperatures rising into the upper 70s/lower 80s F, with upper 60s F dewpoints contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg of thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). While increasing deep-layer ascent atop the mixing boundary layer will support an increase in convective coverage, deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, with slightly curved/elongated hodographs supporting multicellular development amid 30 kts of effective bulk shear. With low-level lapse rates steepening to over 7 C/km, damaging gusts appear to be the main threat with the stronger storms. Given the modest hodograph curvature, an instance or two of marginally severe hail is possible and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Conditions will continue to be monitored for corridors of locally stronger surface heating, which may support enough coverage of damaging-gust producing storms to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.