New HRRR run showing earlier transition to sleet on Long Island:
The HRRR model has the snow start on Long Island between 10 PM and 1 AM tomorrow night, but it has it change to sleet in the early afternoon on Monday, which would hold down the snow totals. It doesn't mean this will be the right solution, but it's concerning. It's only showing 4 to 7 inches on Long Island instead of a general 6 to 12 inches.
I will have an update by around 4:45 AM tomorrow.
- 1st image: Projected snowfall only through 6 PM Monday from the HRRR model
- 2nd to 5th images: Maps from the HRRR model for Monday at 5 AM, 10 AM, 2 PM, and 6 PM, respectively