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New info on future Zeta and comments on Long Island impacts and Halloween outlook:

Most of the new guidance is in from the 12Z runs and ensembles. The HWRF does bring it to hurricane-strength, but it has it weaken before landfall, so it still looks like the most likely scenario is for it to make landfall along the central Gulf coast as a strong tropical storm late Wednesday. The Euro and Euro ensembles show landfall farther west in Louisiana, but it's an outlier for now.


It is looking a little more likely that there will be rain and some wind for Long Island and southern New England from around Thursday afternoon or evening to Friday afternoon or evening from the remnants of Zeta, but it's still 5 to 6 days from now, so there is plenty of time to watch it and fine-tune the forecast.


All indications are that it will be a sunny and chilly Halloween on Long Island with highs in the 50's.


See previous post for more information as Invest 95L is likely to be upgraded to a Tropical Depression very soon, possibly with the 5 PM advisory from the NHC.


- 1st and 2nd images: Early 18Z guidance from various models.

- 3rd image: GFS ensembles for the next 6 days

- 4th and 5th image: Projected storm locations at 8 PM Wednesday and 2 Pm Friday from the Euro ensemble members







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