From the NHC... the spread in the track guidance increases at days 3-5. The HWRF and GFS still lie on the western side of the guidance envelope and show Ian moving over the central or western Florida panhandle, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show a track farther east into west-central Florida. Overall, the NHC track forecast remains near the center of the guidance envelope and still lies very near the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, there is still significant uncertainty in the long-range track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the forecast will likely be required.
Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.0N 84.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.9N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 25.5N 84.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 28.0N 84.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 30.3N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
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