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New National Weather Service comments align with my posts/ forecast:

11 days ago, I posted the following: "The models are showing a potential big storm for mid-month... there are even some Euro ensemble members showing a snowstorm for Long Island."


The following are brand-new comments from the NWS covering Long Island and the tri-state area:

  • Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track.

  • NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45 mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at least near blizzard conditions.

  • Still some question how quickly the low will pull out on Thu, with the ECMWF lagging a little behind the GFS, so steady snow still likely in the morning, then gradually tapering off from W to E through the day.

The following image shows the projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member:




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