New system added, which the GFS is keen on! Also, special announcement coming early this evening:

The original system (yellow x) is down to 0%, which is why I said the 20% this morning was generous.

The GFS develops the system that will enter the Caribbean into a major hurricane, but it's likely overdoing it, as even its own ensembles aren't overly bullish.

I will post the Euro ensembles later and have a special announcement early this evening.