• My Personal Weatherman

New update on Sally with major impacts for the central Gulf Coast:

While Hurricane Paulette will be bearing down on Bermuda later tonight and future Teddy is projected to become a powerful Category 3 hurricane later this week (see last image for Euro ensembles), the main story for the United States is Tropical Storm Sally. It is still projected to make landfall as a hurricane with 90 mph maximum sustained winds with a storm surge as high as 7 to 11 feet. Incredible rainfall totals of over 20 inches are possible due to the slow movement when it nears the coast! It should start strengthening again tonight, and also it's possible that the track could shift a little to the east if it strengthens enough. See all images below for more information, and the following is from the National Hurricane Center:


STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane 
warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible within the watch area tonight, and are expected within the 
warning area beginning Monday.

RAINFALL:  Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting 
in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday 
into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 
inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the 
central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast 
Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. This rainfall 
will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major 
flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and track into the 
Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of 
inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is 
possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some 
rivers in Mississippi and Alabama. 

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee, 
northern Georgia and western North Carolina.  Flash, urban, and 
minor river flooding is possible across this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 
1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through Monday. 
This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high 
flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES:  The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase 
Monday afternoon and evening over parts of the western Florida 
Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast 

SURF:  Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the
Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will
be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through
Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

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