Oh what a surprise; the National Hurricane Center shifted their track westward again for Philippe, and they probably aren't done yet. Also, very interesting that they are mentioning the 2nd storm that will likely develop just west of Philippe! Please read the following from the NHC:
- The most notable change in this NHC forecast is that the guidance has again shifted westward, both due to an adjustment caused by Philippe's recent motion and a general westward trend in the track guidance. The official forecast is close to the TVCA consensus aid, but it's not as far to the west as the latest ECMWF and HCCA solutions. The risk continues to increase for some form of Philippe, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, to reach Atlantic Canada or eastern New England in about 5 days. - The GFS and ECMWF are now in good agreement that a separate baroclinic/non-tropical low will develop just to the west of Philippe in about 3 days. These two systems are likely to interact, with Philippe becoming attached to the warm front, and therefore becoming extratropical, by day 4. It's possible that Philippe could strengthen slightly due to this baroclinic interaction, and that scenario is shown in the official forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 19.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 23.8N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 29.2N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 32.2N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 45.8N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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