NHC track is likely too far from Florida:
In the 1st image you can see the current NHC track (black line) is the farthest from southern Florida. The 2nd to 4th images show the new 18Z runs of the GFS, Euro, and HWRF. Based on this, I think the NHC will adjust their track slightly closer to Florida with their 10 PM update. If the 00Z runs continue the recent trend, then the NHC will shift the track again early tomorrow morning. It still looks like strong tropical storm intensity.