Now we're up to 60% for the potential system for the eastern Gulf of Mexico:

I will post the Euro ensembles later this afternoon.

A broad area of low pressure centered over Central America is forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.