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Oppressive heat, Elsa next, thunderstorms, downpours, and a look at the 4th of July weekend:

- The Heat Advisory continues for Nassau and northern Suffolk until 8 PM tomorrow. Heat indices will be as high as 103 degrees on Long Island both days, but the actual temperatures may be slightly hotter tomorrow, but with a slightly lower dew point. Southwestern Suffolk will likely be added to the Heat Advisory for tomorrow.

- Slight chance of a thunderstorm today, better chance of a strong thunderstorm tomorrow evening, and then periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours at times from Thursday afternoon into Friday.

- There is a tornado, hail, and strong wind gust threat for VT, NH, and ME tomorrow with the thunderstorms.

- Much cooler for Friday, Saturday, and the 4th of July with highs in the 70's on Long Island.

- The chances for rain will decrease each day this weekend, so the 4th of July looks decent with partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs in the upper 70's, and a 30% chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.

- The Euro ensembles continue to show a better chance of tropical development with the wave behind 95L, which is being given a 40% chance by the NHC. Nothing is imminent, but the next name on the list in Elsa. Things should then quiet down towards mid-July before things get very active in August!


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:

Today: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid with a 20% chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm in the late afternoon or evening. Highs mostly 90 to 95 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Heat index temperatures will be as high as 103 degrees. Wind out of the SW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Slight chance of an evening thunderstorm and then mostly clear and humid with lows in the low 70's. Wind out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid with a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening with highs mostly 90 to 95 degrees, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Heat index temperatures will be as high as 103 degrees. Wind out of the SW to SSW at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tomorrow night: A 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms before midnight, otherwise partly cloudy and humid with lows in the low 70's. Wind out of the SW at around 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy and humid in the morning and then mostly cloudy with periods of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours in the afternoon into the night. Highs mostly in the mid 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W to WSW at around 10 mph.

Friday: Cloudy and cooler with periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm with the potential for heavy downpours in the morning. Highs in the mid to upper 70's. Wind out of the ENE at around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of some scattered showers. Highs in the mid 70's.

4th of July: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of some scattered showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the upper 70's.

Monday: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a shower. Highs mostly in the low 80's, but cooler for the south shore and east end.


- 3rd image: Projected heat index temperatures at Noon today from the HRRR model

- 4th image: From the NHC

- 5th image: Euro ensembles for the next 10 days

- 6th image: Projected rainfall through 8 PM Monday from the Euro

- 7th image: Projected rainfall through 2 AM on the 4th of July from the WPC

- 8th and 9th images: Severe weather potential for tomorrow and Thursday, respectively, from the SPC

- 10th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend













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