Paulette a threat to Bermuda as a hurricane:
Quick update only on Tropical Storm Paulette as it looks like it's becoming an increasing threat to Bermuda as a hurricane early next week. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to strengthen to 85 mph maximum sustained winds, but they wrote in their forecast discussion that "additional upward adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today."
The following is from the NHC forecast discussion for Tropical Storm Paulette:
SHIPS diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about 12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next day or so. The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days. This more favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it moves in the vicinity of Bermuda. The new NHC intensity forecast has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA solutions. Therefore, additional upward adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 21.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH