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Paulette a threat to Bermuda as a hurricane:

Quick update only on Tropical Storm Paulette as it looks like it's becoming an increasing threat to Bermuda as a hurricane early next week. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to strengthen to 85 mph maximum sustained winds, but they wrote in their forecast discussion that "additional upward adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today."


The following is from the NHC forecast discussion for Tropical Storm Paulette:


SHIPS diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about 12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next day or so.  The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear 
magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days.  This more 
favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and 
sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected 
to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it 
moves in the vicinity of Bermuda.  The new NHC intensity forecast 
has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous 
prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus, 
IVCN, and the HCCA solutions.  Therefore, additional upward 
adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 21.5N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 21.8N  50.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 22.6N  52.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 23.8N  54.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 25.4N  56.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 26.9N  58.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 28.0N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 30.0N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 32.5N  65.0W   75 KT  85 MPH






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