Potential Caribbean system down to 20%:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 600 miles southeast of Bermuda is poorly organized and displaced well east of the low-level center. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or so while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week as it moves slowly northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.