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Potential Tropical Cyclone 26 projected to become 100 mph Hurricane Delta:

From the National Hurricane Center:

The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 16.7N  76.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  05/0600Z 17.1N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  05/1800Z 18.0N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 19.0N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 21.0N  82.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 23.1N  85.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 24.7N  87.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 26.5N  90.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 28.6N  90.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

The global models indicate that the shear will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment is expected to quite favorable for both the development of a tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. The intensity guidance is quite aggressive, but also assumes that the system already has a tropical cyclone structure. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus during the first 24-48 hours, but does show the system at or near hurricane strength by the time is near western Cuba on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and additional strengthening is predicted during that time. Late in the period, conditions are forecast to become less conducive as the vertical wind shear increases and the system nears the cooler shelf waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico.



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