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Quick 4:30 AM update on severe weather in the deep south, and the Long Island forecast:

- Check out the incredible tornado in Vernon, TX yesterday in the 1st image. Taken by Brad Arnold (@BradArnoldWX on Twitter).

- Take note Frances, Chirleen, and Stephen... more severe weather will occur today in the deep south, and a Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 AM CDT (2nd image).

- The timing of the rain for Long Island hasn't changed since my post last night. It's generally a 12-hour rain from around 3 AM to 3 PM (a little earlier for Nassau) with around 1 inch of rain expected (possibly slightly more), and it will be moderate to occasionally heavy at times tomorrow morning.

- Warm by Wednesday with highs in the 70's, but there will be more clouds around by late Wednesday and into Thursday and a few showers can't be ruled out.


LONG ISLAND FORECAST:


Today: Sunny in the morning with increasing clouds late in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the W in the morning at around 10 mph and then out of the SSW in the afternoon at around 15 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain developing between around 1 AM and 4 AM from west to east. Lows mostly in the upper 40's. Wind out of the S at around 10 mph.

Tomorrow: Rain, moderate to heavy at times in the morning, tapering off to showers and ending between around 1 PM and 3 PM from west to east with some breaks of sun by late afternoon, especially in Nassau, and it will become breezy in the afternoon. Total rainfall should be around 1 inch. Highs in the low 60's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind mostly out of the ENE in the morning at 10 to 15 mph and then out of the N and then NNW by late afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph.

Tomorrow night: Becoming mostly clear with lows in the low 40's. Breezy with gusts up to 25 mph from the NW.

Monday: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs mostly in the low 60's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind gusts up to 20 mph from the NW.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs mostly in the mid to upper 60's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW in the afternoon at around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and warm with highs mostly in the low to mid 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the SSW to S at around 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy and warm with highs mostly in the low 70's, but cooler for the south shore and east end. Wind out of the S at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers. Highs in the upper 60's.


- 1st image: Tornado yesterday in Vernon, TX

- 2nd image: Tornado Watch

- 3rd image: Severe weather potential for today into tonight from the Storm Prediction Center

- 4th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend

- 5th image: My 5 day outlook for Long Island

- 6th image: Projected rainfall through 6 PM tomorrow from the NAM model








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