Quick 4 AM update as the big snowstorm is still on track:
The Euro, GFS, and Canadian are all still showing a big snowstorm for Long Island and southern New England, as well as areas to the west and southwest. The Euro ensembles are also very bullish now with the ensemble mean showing 7 inches for Long Island with many members showing 10 inches or more. Of course, there are still some that have the storm too close so rain mixes in and totals are lower. The timing appears to be a little later, so maybe Wednesday late afternoon into Thursday late morning. We can fine-tune that as we get closer. If it stays all snow, there is the potential for 8 to 12 inches in many areas. If the storm gets too close to the coast, there could be some mixing issues for southeastern Suffolk.
There is still the weaker storm for Monday which could bring some light snow accumulations for southern New England and rain for Long Island with some wet snow mixed in.
I may have a brief update or two this morning or early afternoon, and then I will have more detailed updates from mid-afternoon and into this evening.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Saturday): Cloudy and mild with scattered showers developing by around mid-morning and continuing into mid or late afternoon with fairly light winds at less than 10 mph. Highs in the mid 50's.
Tonight: Cloudy and fairly mild with only a 20% chance of a couple of light passing showers. Lows in the upper 40's.
Tomorrow (Sunday): Partly cloudy and mild with highs in the mid to upper 50's. The wind will be out of the SW in the morning and the W in the afternoon with gusts up to 20 or 25 mph in the afternoon.
Monday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of showers in the mid or late morning into mid or late afternoon from the southern stream system that has trended farther north. Cooler with highs in the low 40's. Some wet snow can't be ruled out.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold with highs in the upper 30's
Wednesday: Chance of snow developing by mid-afternoon. Highs in the mid 30's. Depending on the track, timing, and strength of the storm, accumulating snow (moderate to heavy at times) is possible into Thursday morning. Wind gusts up to 35 mph from the NNE to NE are possible. Stay tuned for updates as there will be shifts. If it stays all snow, there is the potential for 6 to 12 inches of snow. Some mixing with sleet or rain is possible for southeastern Suffolk, depending on how close the center comes to the coast.
Thursday: Snow tapering off to flurries by afternoon. Breezy with highs only in the low to mid 30's.
- 1st to 3rd images: Snow maps from the Euro, GFS, and Canadian models
- 4th image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 5th to 7th images: Maps from the Euro (7 AM Thurs), GFS (1 AM Thurs), and Canadian (1 AM Thurs)
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the NWS model blend