Quick 4 AM update on future Zeta, the potential coastal storm, and the Long Island forecast:
Invest 95L is now up to a 90% chance of tropical development, according to the National Hurricane Center. It looks like it will head generally northward towards the central Gulf coast as a tropical storm. There are no indications that it would become a hurricane, but intensity forecasts are a little more difficult than track forecasts.
There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of a potential coast storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England late next week (see last image). There are multiple pieces of energy, including Invest 95L, and it will depend on phasing and also if high pressure keeps it farther south. I will continue to update on this.
Long Island forecast:
Today (Saturday): Mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 60's. A dry cold front will come through in the afternoon, so it will turn much cooler at night.
Tomorrow (Sunday): Mostly sunny in the morning with more clouds by late afternoon with a slight chance of a shower by evening. Much cooler with highs mostly in the mid 50's.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of some showers with highs in the low to mid 60's.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers with highs around 60 degrees.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of some showers. Highs around 60 degrees.
Thursday: Increasing clouds with a 30% chance of rain by evening. Highs around 60 degrees.
- 1st image: From the NHC
- 2nd to 4th images: Euro ensembles for Invest 95L for the next 10 days, GFS ensembles for the next 7 days, and tracks from various models
- 5th image: Intensity guidance from various models for Invest 95L
- 6th image: Projected snowfall for the next 15 days from the Euro ensemble mean
- 7th image: Projected precipitation for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center
- 8th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend
- 9th image: Projected storm locations from the Euro ensemble members for 2 PM Friday