Quick 4 AM update on Iota, the rain/wind for tomorrow, potential future snow, and LI forecast:
There is no change in the forecast for Tropical Storm Iota, as it will become a powerful hurricane and make landfall somewhere near the Nicaragua/ Honduras border early next week bringing damaging wind gusts, life-threatening storm surge, and the potential for 20 to 30 inches of rain.
After Iota, no other tropical systems are on the horizon. I wouldn't be surprised though if we get another named storm before the end of the year.
The timing of the rain/wind for Long Island tomorrow afternoon/evening still looks generally on track. It will be interesting to see if the National Weather Service issued a Wind Advisory. As of now, their map is only showing wind gusts up to 32 mph on Long Island, but there will likely be gusts over 40 mph.
The GFS is showing a storm with snow and some sleet for southern New England and Long Island on the Tues/Wed of Thanksgiving week, but it's too early to tell. The GFS snow map is crazy, lol. The odds are still low, but there is a much better chance of snow for the higher elevations of central to northern New England and upstate NY.
LONG ISLAND FORECAST:
Today (Saturday): Mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the low 50's.
Tomorrow (Sunday): Increasing clouds in the morning with rain developing from west to east between around 2 PM and 5 PM. Highs in the upper 50's to near 60 degrees. Wind gusts up to 25 or 30 mph from the south are possible in the afternoon. Rainy and windy in the evening as the cold front comes through with gusts up to 40 mph. The rain should end between 9 PM and midnight from west to east. There is the potential for a Wind Advisory for the evening with wind gusts briefly up to 45 to 50 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny and windy with highs in the low to mid 50's. Wind gusts up to 25 mph from the west.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and breezy with highs only in the upper 40's.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and cold with highs only around 40 degrees.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 40's.
- 1st image: Official NHC map for Tropical Storm Iota
- 2nd image: Maximum projected wind gusts in knots through 1 AM Monday from the Euro. Actual gusts will likely be lower.
- 3rd image: Projected snowfall for the next 15 days from the Euro ensemble mean
- 4th image: Projected temperatures for Long Island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend