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Quick 4 AM update on the tropics and the Long Island forecast:

Invest 94L in the Atlantic is now up to an 80% chance of subtropical development, and a subtropical depression is likely to form by Monday. It will then become subtropical storm Epsilon on Monday or Tuesday. It's not a threat to the east coast of the United States.

The National Hurricane Center is still at a 30% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days in the SW Caribbean. The GFS ensembles continue to be more bullish on Hurricane Zeta forming than the Euro ensembles.

Long Island forecast:

Today: Breezy and chilly with rain ending from around 5 AM to 7 AM from west to east with the sun then coming out quickly by 7 AM to 9 AM from west to east. Highs only around 60 degrees. The wind will quickly die down in the late afternoon and early evening with nearly calm conditions expected at night, which will set the stage for radiational cooling with overnight lows mostly in the upper 30's to low 40's, but possibly as low as 33 degrees at Westhampton Beach.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 60's.

Monday: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 60's. 

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower in the evening or at night. highs in the upper 60's.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with only a very slight chance of a shower. Highs in the upper 60's.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs near 70 degrees.

- 1st and 2nd images: GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles, respectively, each for the next 10 days.

- 3rd image: From the NHC

- 4th image: Projected 5-day rainfall from 8 PM tomorrow to 8 PM Friday, from the Euro

- 5th image: Projected temperatures for Long island for the next 10 days from the National Weather Service model blend

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