• My Personal Weatherman

Quick update on Sally, Paulette, and soon-to-be Teddy:

The 11 AM advisories on all 3 storms are in from the National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Paulette is now projected to become a Category 3 hurricane after it pulls away from Bermuda.

Tropical Depression Twenty is expected to become Tropical Storm Teddy by tonight and possibly a major hurricane by the middle to end of the week. The NHC is projecting it to be a strong Cat 2, but they state the following in their forecast discussion: "There are two main points that suggest this forecast could potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles: 1. the HWRF model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2. the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a 50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological mean."

Tropical Storm Sally is now up to 60 mph maximum sustained winds, and it's projected to be around 90 to 100 mph at landfall near New Orleans, but there is still some uncertainty. The new HWRF run actually came in much weaker than what it was showing, but it may just be an anomaly. The forecast track has nudged slightly farther west as well from the previous advisory. Maximum projected storm surge is still 7 to 11 feet, and projected rainfall totals are still 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts up to 20 inches on the east side of the storm.

I will have more updates this afternoon and evening.

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