• My Personal Weatherman

Quick update on the active tropics:

See my previous post for the full update and the Long Island forecast.

Tropical Depression Nineteen will become Tropical Storm Sally later today and head towards New Orleans probably as a Category 1 hurricane early next week (The national Hurricane Center is forecasting it to be a strong tropical storm only. Edit: as of the new 11 AM advisory, they are now projecting it to become a Cat 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph). The HWRF model is showing that it could be a Cat 2 though, so it can't be ruled out. It will be moving slowly once it gets near the coast though, so the only point of contention I have with the National Hurricane Center is that they are mentioning 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amounts up to 6 inches. The models and also the Weather Prediction Center is showing that the potential is there for some areas getting 8 to 12 inches with isolated higher totals possible. Also, most of the rain will be east of the center. (Edit: as of the new 11 AM advisory, the National Hurricane Center is stating the following: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. The depression is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana Sunday and 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely."

Paulette will impact Bermuda tomorrow night into Monday as a strong hurricane (high-end Cat 2 probably). It will have a large eye, probably twice the length of Bermuda (see last image).

Regarding Invest 95L (future Teddy) out in the Atlantic, it still appears likely that it will curve northwestward well before getting near the Leeward Islands. After that, we will still have to keep an eye on it, and it will likely become a strong hurricane. The 1st image shows the brand-new 06Z Euro ensembles, but they only go out 6 days.

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