Quick update on the potential storms:
Not too much has changed really as it still looks like some snow is possible for southern New England from the first storm on Monday, and it still looks like a bigger snowstorm on Wednesday afternoon/evening into Thursday morning/afternoon. Subtle shifts in the track will be crucial in determining the rain/snow line. As for Long Island, the best chance of staying mostly snow is northwest Nassau, but the 1st image shows the uncertainty still in exactly where the storm will track.
The following is from the National Weather Service covering Long Island and the tri-state area: "Overall, confidence is moderate in a coastal low affecting the region during the Wed/Wed Night time period with moderate to heavy precip, gusty to strong winds, and at least minor coastal impacts. 12z ECE and GEFS ensemble means and operational runs currently signal potential for a significant snowfall for much of the region. Confidence is inherently low on this playing out like this, this far out, but would expect increasing confidence and clarity on details as the responsible shortwave energy works onshore Sunday into Sunday Night."
- 1st image: Projected storm locations for 7 AM Thursday from the Euro ensemble members
- 2nd image: Projected snowfall through 1 PM Thursday from the Euro ensemble mean. This includes the Monday storm as well.
- 3rd image: Projected snowfall for Long Island for the next 15 days as a running total from every Euro ensemble member
- 4th image: Map from the National Weather Service
- 5th image: Projected snowfall through 7 AM Tuesday (for the 1st storm only) from the Euro
- 6th image: Map from the GFS for 7 PM Wednesday