Quick update on the tropics
- I have arrived safely near Cayuga Lake.
- The 2nd tropical wave is now up to a 40% probability of tropical development in the next 5 days by the National Hurricane Center.
- The 2nd image shows the Euro ensembles for the next 10 days.
The following is from the National Hurricane Center:
1. A tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.